Location of the Cascadia subduction zone. Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency

The Pacific Northwest’s most likely catastrophic event is an estimated 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami. Expected impacts include ground shaking for 4 – 6 minutes, causing massive critical infrastructure damage, along with a tsunami reaching some parts of the Oregon coast within 15 minutes of the quake.

In the event of a CSZ earthquake, the Federal Emergency Management Agency expects up to 25,000 fatalities, tens of thousands of people in need of shelter, and $30+ billion in economic losses. Oregon counties in the high impact areas along the coast include: Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Lane, Douglas, Coos, and Curry counties. Mid-range impacted areas include the Portland metropolitan area with Washington, Multnomah, and Clackamas counties. Additional counties west of the Cascades in the mid-range impact areas include: Columbia, Yamhill, Polk, Marion, Benton, Linn, Jackson, and Josephine counties.

This event would devastate the region’s petroleum supply and distribution system. Oregon can expect to lose most of the normal incoming supply of fuel. The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries’ 2013 Seismic Study found that the region’s refineries and petroleum distribution terminals are expected to sustain moderate to significant damage. The facilities will have tank farm failures, marine dock failures, pipeline system breaks, hazardous material spills, fires, and structural damages onsite. Restoring the region’s petroleum infrastructure would likely take months if not longer. In addition, the Olympic Pipeline that transports the majority of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to Oregon is projected to suffer as many as 250 breaks and 82 leaks.

The Oregon Department of Energy will activate its Oregon Fuel Action Plan following a CSZ quake to secure and distribute fuel to critical and life-saving services.

PBS Video on Cascadia Quake

Overview of Oregon Fuel Action Plan Strategies

FEMA Concept of Operations

Follow links to learn more.

  • Fuel Needs Identified for Critical Missions

  • Fuel Allocation

  • Fuel Movement Post Cascadia. Ongoing planning and coordination with federal agencies include strategies for creating new temporary fuel supply chains into Oregon from outside of the region to meet state emergency and recovery activities following a Cascadia event. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated the Defense Logistics Agency to direct and manage disaster fuel operations in support of affected states.

    • Federal-State Concept of Operations. FEMA developed a strategy for responding to a Cascadia event in support of each affected state. These strategies identify federal staging areas where FEMA will be deploying responders and delivering disaster relief supplies including fuel to Oregon.

    • Ground Movement. All disaster fuel operations at the federal level are managed by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) under FEMA’s Emergency Fuel Purchasing Contract. DLA partners with the private sector to ensure adequate fuel supplies to support emergency response and recovery activities in affected states.

    • Air Movement. Due to widespread damage to transportation systems anticipated post Cascadia, transporting fuel by air may be necessary. However, this strategy is difficult to sustain, hazardous, and restricted to moving small quantities of fuel.

    • Over-the-Shore Movement. A fuel supply chain will be established to support the coastal communities using maritime assets to support “over-the-shore” fuel operations. While the Navy has vast resources to support moving disaster relief supplies over the shore, fuel is not one of them. The Navy will carry only enough fuel to sustain its own operations.

      Over-the-shore fuel operations will likely be supported by the private sector. In 2018, ODOE brought a team of state and federal agencies representatives to Barrow, Alaska to observe private sector fuel operations to learn more about private sector resources and capabilities. Astoria, Newport, and Coos Bay are three locations being considered for this capability.

      USDOT’s Maritime Administration can complete a commercial market assessment to identify commercial maritime capabilities to support this mission for FEMA. MARAD will demonstrate this capability in the next National Level Exercise in June of 2022, called “Cascadia Rising.” 

    • State Staging Areas. The Oregon Transportation Systems Resiliency Assessment identified 12 potential airports to serve as state staging areas to support communities affected in a Cascadia event or other major disaster.

Other Resources